Highlights

• • Market implies only ~27% for Baxter, we estimate ~33%.
• • Philibert's 0-5 start contrasts with Baxter's greater experience and wins.

Pros

• + Clear pricing disparity versus documented records and experience
• + Away price (3.7) offers strong upside if Baxter's experience matters

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses on hard courts — form volatility is high
• - Small sample for Philibert increases uncertainty; outcomes could still be swingy

Details

The market prices Nicolas Philibert as a heavy favorite at 1.24 (implied ~80.6%), while Hudson Baxter is available at 3.7 (implied ~27.0%). Our read of the provided profiles: Philibert is 0-5 in his short career (all hard court matches listed) with no recorded wins, whereas Baxter is a more experienced competitor (10-21 across 31 matches) who regularly contests higher-level events (recent Challenger-level appearances). Despite both showing recent losses on hard, the balance of evidence (greater match experience, a non-negligible historical win rate for Baxter vs. a 0-5 start for Philibert) suggests Baxter's true chance of winning this matchup is materially higher than the market-implied 27%. Using a conservative estimate of Baxter's true probability at 33%, the 3.7 price yields positive expected value. We used the quoted away price of 3.7 for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Philibert 0-5 career record on hard (very small sample but no wins)
• • Baxter substantially more match experience (31 matches, 10 wins) and recent Challenger exposure
• • Market heavily favors home despite limited winning history — creates value on the away price