Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability ~82% vs our conservative 75% estimate
• • Favorite EV = -0.085; Underdog EV ≈ -0.0125 — neither offers positive value

Pros

• + Clear market signal on a heavy favorite — easy to compare to a conservative model
• + We apply conservative probability to avoid over-betting favorites without supporting data

Cons

• - No venue/surface/form/injury/H2H data available increases uncertainty
• - A very small informational edge could flip value to the underdog or favorite

Details

We compare the market prices to a conservative win-probability estimate given the absence of independent data. The market implies the home (Nicolas Robert) has a win probability of 1/1.22 = 81.97%. Given no form, injury, surface, or H2H information, we apply a conservative true probability of 75.0% for the home (accounting for favorite bias and uncertainty). At that estimate the favorite's expected value = 0.75 * 1.22 - 1 = -0.085 (negative), so the favorite is over-priced by the market and offers no value. By complement, the away's implied probability is 1 - 0.75 = 25.0%; the awayline EV = 0.25 * 3.95 - 1 = -0.0125 (also negative). Both sides produce negative expected value under conservative assumptions, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent information on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — we use conservative priors
• • Market strongly favors the home at 1.22 (implied ~82%), which exceeds our conservative estimate
• • Underdog price (3.95) is close to break-even only if away win probability materially exceeds our conservative complement