Highlights

• • Tepmahc's career win rate is materially higher than De Schepper's in the provided data
• • Current price 2.8 implies a much lower chance than our conservative estimate

Pros

• + Strong relative career win percentage in the available sample
• + No injury or availability concerns referenced in the research
• + Current odds offer a large margin between implied and estimated true probability

Cons

• - Relatively small sample sizes and limited head-to-head/contextual detail in the research
• - Recent form shown is mixed for both players, adding outcome variance

Details

We compare the market price to our read of the players' underlying win likelihood. The market implies Nicolas Tepmahc has a 35.7% chance (1/2.8) while Kenny De Schepper is ~71.4% (1/1.4). From the provided profiles Tepmahc has a superior career win rate (25/41 = 61.0%) versus De Schepper (30/58 = 51.7%) and both have recent activity on hard courts. There are no explicit injury flags in the research. Conservatively adjusting for sample sizes and recent mixed results, we estimate Tepmahc's true win probability at 56.0%, far above the market-implied 35.7%, which creates clear positive expected value at the quoted home price of 2.8. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.56 * 2.8 - 1 = 0.568 (56.8% ROI).

Key factors

• • Nicolas Tepmahc career win rate 25/41 = 61.0% vs De Schepper 30/58 = 51.7%
• • Both players recently competed on hard courts; no injury flags reported
• • Market-implied probability for Tepmahc (35.7%) is substantially below our estimated true probability (56%)