Nicolas Ifi vs Joris De Loore

Highlights

• • Book odds imply De Loore ~90% to win, which is implausibly high given records
• • Ifi at 5.95 is slightly above our fair price (~5.882) producing ~+1.15% EV

Pros

• + Clear market overreaction creates measurable value on the underdog
• + Simple calculation with transparent implied vs estimated probabilities

Cons

• - Edge is very small (≈1.15% ROI) and the bet is high variance
• - Limited recent-match detail and no H2H or clear surface advantage increases uncertainty

Details

The market massively favors Joris De Loore at 1.107 (implied win probability 90.3%), which is out of line with the available form and career records. De Loore's career record (15-11) suggests a clear edge over Nicolas Ifi (9-20), but not anywhere close to 90% - a realistic head-to-head single-match win probability for De Loore is nearer to ~0.83 based on the profiles, leaving Ifi ~0.17. Using 0.17 as our estimated true probability for Ifi, the fair decimal price would be ~5.882; the current offer of 5.95 for Ifi is slightly better than fair, producing a small positive EV (EV = 0.17 * 5.95 - 1 = 0.0115, ≈ +1.15% ROI). The value comes from bookmaker overconfidence in the favourite (odds imply 90%+), combined with both players showing uneven recent results and limited separation by surface in the provided data. Given the tiny edge, we flag this as a positive-expectation, high-variance play rather than a strong, low-risk recommendation.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker implied probability for De Loore (≈90.3%) appears overstated versus available player records
• • Career win-loss: De Loore (15-11) vs Ifi (9-20) — superior but not dominant enough to justify 90%+ pricing
• • Both players show uneven recent form and no clear surface advantage in the supplied data