Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Molcan: ~70.4%; our estimate: 72.0%
• • Estimated EV ≈ +2.2% at the quoted price (decimal 1.42)

Pros

• + Clearer historical edge in win-loss from supplied data
• + Recent tournament form in Istanbul supports Molcan's chances

Cons

• - No provided grass-court history for either player, increasing uncertainty
• - Edge is small — close to market price so result is sensitive to estimation error

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Alex Molcan (1/1.42 = 70.4%) to our estimated true win probability of 72.0%. Molcan has a materially stronger win-loss profile in the provided data (38-14 vs Mejia 35-32) and showed solid recent form in the same Istanbul event. Both players' profiles list hard and clay but not grass, which increases variance and reduces confidence; we account for that by keeping a modest edge (72%). At decimal 1.42 the EV = 0.72*1.42 - 1 = +0.0224 (≈ +2.2% ROI), so the current price offers slight positive value versus our estimate.

Key factors

• • Alex Molcan's superior win-loss record (38-14 vs Mejia 35-32) in the supplied profiles
• • Recent positive form for Molcan in the Istanbul Challenger event
• • Both players lack recorded grass experience in the provided data, increasing outcome variance