Highlights

• • Potenza career record significantly better than Mejia
• • Current away decimal 2.65 offers meaningful overlay vs estimated win probability

Pros

• + Clear gap in career win rates favoring Potenza
• + Recent Istanbul hard-court matches indicate Potenza is in form and match-ready
• + Large margin between market price and our conservative probability creates strong EV

Cons

• - Assessment relies on career-level records with limited direct H2H or contextual match data
• - Potential for matchup-specific factors (playing style, fatigue) not detailed in Research

Details

We find value on Luca Potenza (away). The market prices Nicolas Mejia at 1.46 (implied ~68.5%) and Potenza at 2.65 (implied ~37.7%). The raw career records in the Research show Potenza with a markedly stronger win-loss record (45-22, ~67% career win rate) versus Mejia (35-32, ~52% career win rate). Both players have recent activity on hard courts in Istanbul, but Potenza’s recent results include qualifier wins and solid match-level serving metrics, indicating form and match readiness. Given Potenza’s superior career win rate and recent Istanbul hard-court results, we believe the market is under-pricing him; a conservative estimated true probability of 47% for Potenza versus the market-implied ~37.7% produces positive value. Using the quoted away price of 2.65 (odds_used_for_ev = 2.65), EV = 0.47 * 2.65 - 1 = 0.2455 (24.6% expected ROI on a 1-unit stake). We consider this a medium-risk value play because the assessment relies on career-level win rates and limited match-level context, but the price gap is large enough to justify recommending the away side.

Key factors

• • Potenza’s superior career win-loss record (45-22) versus Mejia (35-32)
• • Both players have recent hard-court activity in Istanbul; Potenza showed qualifier wins and match readiness
• • Market-implied probability for Potenza (~37.7%) appears lower than a conservative estimated true probability (47%)