Highlights

• • Market implies Zanellato 47.6% but we estimate ~53.5%
• • Positive EV on home at current decimal 2.10 (EV ≈ +0.1235)

Pros

• + Clear historical win-rate advantage
• + Current market price (2.10) exceeds our minimum required odds (1.869)

Cons

• - Both players have poor recent form which increases variance
• - No direct H2H or injury information available to further refine probability

Details

We estimate a materially higher win probability for Nicolas Zanellato than the market-implied price suggests. The market prices give Zanellato an implied probability of 47.6% (2.10) while Igor Gimenez is favored at 59.3% (1.685). Comparing career records on relevant surfaces, Zanellato's 94-90 record (≈51.1% win rate) versus Gimenez's 89-112 (≈44.3%) and converting those to a head-to-head style probability yields an estimated true probability around 53.5% for Zanellato. Both players show poor recent results, but the historical edge and relative win-rate differential justify a lean to Zanellato. At the current home price (2.10) this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.535 * 2.10 - 1 ≈ +0.1235, or +12.35% ROI). We therefore recommend the home side only because the calculated EV > 0 at available prices; if prices move below the min required decimal odds (≈1.869) the edge disappears.

Key factors

• • Zanellato's superior career win-rate (94-90) versus Gimenez (89-112)
• • Both players recent form is poor, but overall historical edge favours Zanellato
• • Market strongly favors Gimenez (1.685) leaving value on Zanellato at 2.10