Nicole Gadient vs Tian Jialin
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value bet on Nicole Gadient at 4.6 decimal odds; the market overstates Tian's win probability relative to the available performance data, giving Gadient positive EV.
Highlights
- • Research shows near-identical records and surface experience for both players
- • Current favourite price (1.17) appears too short relative to that parity
Pros
- + Large edge between our estimated true probability and the market price for the underdog
- + Both players' profiles in the data suggest a closer match than market odds reflect
Cons
- - Research is limited and lacks head-to-head, recent form detail, or injury reports
- - If there are unseen factors (rank/seed/injury) not in the provided data, our estimate may be optimistic
Details
We find value on the home underdog (Nicole Gadient). The provided research shows both players with essentially identical career records (10-21) and both have played on clay and hard surfaces, suggesting parity rather than a blowout. The market prices Tian Jialin at 1.17 (implied ~85% win chance), which is inconsistent with the available performance data; we estimate Nicole's true chance materially higher. Using a conservative true probability of 35% for Gadient vs the quoted 4.6 decimal odds produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.35 * 4.6 - 1 = +0.61). The favourite at 1.17 offers negative EV against our probability estimate. Key drivers: matching records/form, shared surface experience, and an extreme market price that looks overstretched.
Key factors
- • Both players listed with identical recent records (10-21) in the research, implying parity
- • Both have matches on clay recorded — no clear surface edge in the provided data
- • Market strongly favours Tian (1.17) despite research showing similar profiles, creating value