Highlights

• • Book heavily favors Shymanovich (1.23) despite supplied career win-rate ~32%
• • At 3.8, home win needs only ~26.3% to be profitable; our estimate is ~32%

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between market odds and the provided form statistics for the favorite
• + Positive EV at current widely-available price (3.8) using conservative probability estimate

Cons

• - Research lacks any performance data for Nicole Melichar-Martinez and no H2H or injury details
• - Small sample and limited data for Shymanovich increase uncertainty — outcome variance is high

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to the limited available performance data. The book makes Iryna Shymanovich a very large favorite at 1.23 (implied win probability ~81.3%), but her documented career win-rate in the provided research is 10-21 (≈32.3%) across 31 matches and shows recent losses on both hard and clay. Given that discrepancy and the absence of evidence showing dominant form for Shymanovich, we believe the market is overstating her win chances for this match. Conservatively estimating Nicole Melichar-Martinez's true win probability at 32.0% produces positive expected value at the current home price of 3.8 (EV = 0.32*3.8 - 1 = +0.216). We acknowledge high uncertainty because the research contains no head-to-head, no injury information for Nicole, and only aggregate data for Shymanovich, so this is a speculative value bet predicated on the clear mismatch between market pricing and the supplied career/recent form numbers for Shymanovich.

Key factors

• • Market implies Iryna win prob ~81.3% (1.23), which is inconsistent with her documented 10-21 career record (~32.3%)
• • Recent matches in the provided data show losses on both hard and clay, indicating poor short-term form
• • No supporting performance data for Nicole in the research increases uncertainty but creates opportunity given long-shot price (3.8)