Highlights

• • Home implied break-even probability = 20.83%; our estimate = 28%
• • Positive EV of ~34% at current 4.80 price

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between implied market probability and our conservative estimated probability
• + No evidence in the provided data of a decisive advantage for the favorite

Cons

• - High variance inherent in tennis upsets — short-format matches can be swingy
• - Research dataset is limited and lacks head-to-head, match context, and venue/surface confirmation

Details

We see a large market skew toward Alexandra Eala (1.17, implied ~85.5%) despite the provided profiles showing nearly identical records and recent form for both players (each 10-21 with similar surfaces and recent losses). The research contains no clear surface advantage, injuries, or form divergence that would justify such a heavy probability for the away player. Using a conservative estimated true win probability for Nicole Fossa Huergo of 28%, the current home moneyline 4.80 offers substantial value because the market is overestimating the favorite. EV calculation: 0.28 * 4.80 - 1 = 0.344 (34.4% ROI). We therefore recommend the home side at the posted price since EV > 0.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records (10-21) in the provided research — little objective separation
• • No clear surface, injury, or form edge in the research to justify a ~85% market probability for the away player
• • Underdog price 4.80 requires only ~20.8% true probability to be profitable; our conservative 28% estimate yields positive EV