Highlights

• • Market implies ~90% chance for Lootsma at 1.11
• • Our estimate (60%) implies minimum fair odds of ~1.667 — well above current price

Pros

• + Lootsma is the market favorite which suggests some underlying edge unknown to us
• + Surface experience includes clay and hard which matches event surfaces

Cons

• - Season record and recent results are modest (7-9) and include recent losses
• - No information on the opponent in the provided research prevents confirming market accuracy

Details

The market prices Niels Lootsma at 1.11 (implied win probability ~90.1%). Using only the supplied player data, Lootsma's career/season record is 7-9 with recent losses noted in lower-tier events; this profile does not support a near-certain 90% chance without additional corroborating information on the opponent or context. Given Lootsma's losing record and documented recent form, we estimate a true win probability materially lower than the market-implied 90%. Even with a constructive tilt in his favor (we estimate 60%), the current price of 1.11 yields negative expected value (EV = 0.60*1.11 - 1 = -0.334). To be profitable versus our estimated probability, we would need at least 1.667 decimal odds. Because the listed prices do not offer positive EV against our estimate, we do not recommend betting on either side.

Key factors

• • Lootsma season record is 7-9 without strong recent wins
• • Recent matches show losses on both clay and hard; form is fragile
• • Market-implied probability (90%) is far higher than what available data justifies