Highlights

• • Visker has a clear career record advantage and more matches played.
• • Current market price (1.84) underestimates Visker relative to our probability model.

Pros

• + Positive EV at available market price
• + Experience and career winning percentage favor Visker

Cons

• - No direct head-to-head data available to confirm matchup specifics
• - Lower-tier tennis matches have higher variance and can be unpredictable

Details

We estimate Niels Visker has a meaningful edge over Brian Bozemoj based on career win rates (Visker 104-83 vs Bozemoj 37-47), greater match volume and slightly better recent form on clay. The market prices this as a very close match (home 1.84 implied ~54.3%), but our estimated true win probability for Visker is higher at 59%. At the quoted home price of 1.84 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.59 * 1.84 - 1 ≈ 0.086). Key contributors to our edge are Visker’s superior career win percentage, more extensive match experience across surfaces including clay, and Bozemoj’s recent string of losses. There is uncertainty due to limited direct H2H information and natural variance in lower-tier events, but the current price offers value relative to our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Visker career win rate and greater experience (104-83 vs 37-47)
• • Both players have clay experience, but recent results favor Visker
• • Market odds are tight; home price 1.84 implies lower probability than our model