Highlights

• • Home implied probability: 36.8%; our estimate: 38.0%
• • Positive expected value at current price: +0.0336 (≈ +3.36% ROI)

Pros

• + Current odds (2.72) are slightly better than the required break-even (2.632) for our estimate
• + Conservative probability assumptions reduce overconfidence risk

Cons

• - Edge is small and could be eroded by last-minute lineup/patch changes
• - TI matches are high variance — single-match outcomes can deviate widely

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to a conservative internal estimate. The market prices imply Nigma Galaxy (home) at ~36.8% (1/2.72) and Liquid (away) at ~68.5% (1/1.459). Given the lack of external reports and treating TI matches as higher-variance but balanced skill contests, we conservatively estimate Nigma Galaxy's true win probability at 38.0%. That estimate is slightly higher than the market-implied 36.8%, producing a small but positive edge. At the available decimal price of 2.72, expected value = 0.38 * 2.72 - 1 = +0.0336 (≈ +3.36% ROI). We note substantial event uncertainty (unknown lineups, patch impacts, and single-match variance), so the edge is modest and should be considered in the context of tournament volatility.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (home 36.8%) vs our conservative estimate (38%)
• • High-variance TI environment with unknown roster/patch impacts
• • Available price (2.72) exceeds break-even price for our estimate (2.632)