Nikita Filin vs Nicolas Arseneault
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Arseneault represents value at 1.21 given his clear experience and hard-court advantage; we estimate ~6.5% positive EV on the away moneyline.
Highlights
- • Market price implies ~82.6% win chance; our estimate is ~88%
- • Filin is inexperienced on hard (0-2) while Arseneault has far greater match exposure
Pros
- + Positive expected value at available odds (≈6.5% ROI)
- + Strong evidence advantage in experience and surface suitability
Cons
- - Margin is modest; favorite-back bets have lower upside and still subject to variance
- - Small amount of available public data on match-day factors (e.g., fitness, conditions) in supplied research
Details
We find value on Nicolas Arseneault at the current price (1.21). The market-implied probability for the away line is ~82.6% (1/1.21). Based solely on the supplied profiles, Arseneault has a substantially larger sample of professional matches (45 matches, 25-19 record across hard and clay) and recent activity at higher-level events, while Nikita Filin has only two recorded matches, is 0-2 on hard, and appears far less experienced. We estimate Arseneault's true win probability meaningfully above the market's ~82.6% (we estimate ~88%), producing a positive expected value. Using the current decimal odds (1.21) yields EV = 0.88 * 1.21 - 1 = 0.0648 (≈6.5% ROI). The main drivers are experience gap, surface record (Arseneault plays hard regularly; Filin 0-2 on hard), and recent higher-level match exposure. No injuries or other mitigating issues are noted in the provided research. Because the calculated min required decimal odds for our probability (1.136) is below the available 1.21, the away price represents value.
Key factors
- • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Arseneault (45 matches vs Filin's 2)
- • Surface form: Filin 0-2 on hard vs Arseneault regular hard-court play
- • Market-implied probability (82.6%) is below our estimated win probability (88%)