Nikita Samuel Filin vs Nicolas Arseneault
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market overprices Arseneault given absence of grass data and unknown underdog; no value at current odds, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Arseneault heavily favored at 1.244 (implied ~80%)
- • Research shows no grass results for Arseneault and no information on Filin
Pros
- + Arseneault has a winning overall record (25-19) which supports favoritism
- + Market is confident in favorite, so outcome may be predictable if additional info favored him
Cons
- - No grass-surface performance in the provided research to justify such a short price
- - No data on the underdog (Filin) and qualifiers can produce upsets
Details
We compared the market price (Arseneault 1.244 implied ~80.4%) to our estimated win probability and find no value on the favorite. Nicolas Arseneault has a decent overall record (25-19) but his recorded matches in the research are on clay/hard and do not indicate grass experience; that reduces our confidence relative to the market pricing. The underdog Nikita Samuel Filin is priced at 3.87 (implied ~25.8%), but we have no performance data for him in the provided research to justify upgrading his chance sufficiently to make that price attractive. Given the lack of grass-specific performance data, mixed recent form in the profile, and the inherently higher variance in qualifiers, we estimate Arseneault's true win probability around 60%, well below the market-implied ~80.4%, producing a negative EV at the current 1.244 price. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at current prices.
Key factors
- • Market implies ~80.4% for Arseneault (1.244) which looks inflated given available data
- • Arseneault's recorded matches are on clay/hard; no grass form in the provided profile
- • No data provided on Nikita Filin to justify marking him down; qualifiers are higher variance