Highlights

• • Market implies Petrovic ~76%, which conflicts with his 1-7 recorded performance
• • Home at 3.20 implies 31.25% — our conservative true probability estimate is 35%, giving positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely available odds (EV ≈ +0.12)
• + Petrovic's recent form and venue losses point toward an overreaction by the market

Cons

• - Very limited and asymmetric data set: no research available for Grunewald
• - Small sample size and missing injury/lineup info create high uncertainty

Details

We see the market strongly favors David Petrovic at 1.312 (implied ~76.2%), but the only player-specific research available shows Petrovic with a 1-7 career record (12.5% win rate) and recent losses in Monastir on hard courts. That profile conflicts with the market's heavy favoritism and suggests the market is overvaluing Petrovic. The home price of 3.20 (implied 31.25%) looks undervalued relative to our adjusted assessment of the matchup. Conservatively we estimate Niklas Grunewald's true win probability at 35%; at decimal 3.20 this yields EV = 0.35*3.20 - 1 = +0.12 (12% ROI per unit), which is positive value. Key uncertainties (very small sample sizes, no direct data on Grunewald, possible lineup/fitness information missing) increase risk, but purely on the numbers available the home side represents value against the market price.

Key factors

• • Petrovic's documented 1-7 career record (12.5% win rate) is far weaker than market implies
• • Recent losses in Monastir on hard courts indicate poor recent form at this venue/surface
• • Market heavily favors Petrovic (implied ~76%), creating potential value on the home upset