Highlights

• • Market implies ~99% for Siniakov, we estimate ~92%
• • Negative EV at current odds (≈ -7.1% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Siniakov has pro experience and is the reasonable favorite based on available record
• + Played on relevant surfaces (hard/clay) according to career profile

Cons

• - Market price (1.01) demands near-certain outcome which available data does not support
• - Opponent information is missing, creating additional uncertainty and tail risk

Details

We compared the market price (Away Siniakov 1.01 => implied win probability ~99.0%) to our assessed realistic win chance for Siniakov given the available career/profile data. Siniakov's record (12-11 across 23 matches) and mixed recent results suggest he is a likely favorite, but not near a 99% certainty. We estimate a true win probability far below the market-implied level, so the current price offers negative expected value and is not a betable market. Lack of any reliable information on the home player (Niklas Niggemann) increases uncertainty and argues against aggressively backing the tiny favorite priced at 1.01.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Siniakov is ~99.0% (1/1.01) which is unrealistically high vs. available form data
• • Siniakov's pro record is modest (12-11) with mixed recent results — not dominant enough to justify 1.01
• • No usable data on opponent (Niggemann) increases model uncertainty; cannot justify extreme favorite pricing