Highlights

• • Schell has grass experience while Luz does not, which matters on an outdoor grass qualifier
• • Current odds (4.67) imply ~21.4% while our estimate is ~22%, producing a small positive EV

Pros

• + Surface fit favors Schell relative to Luz
• + Current price for Schell offers a small numerical edge versus our probability estimate

Cons

• - Edge is marginal (EV ~2.7%); outcome is high variance
• - Both players have limited recent data on grass and mixed form, lowering confidence in the estimate

Details

We identify a small value on Niklas Schell at 4.67 decimal because the market heavily favors Orlando Luz (implied ~85% win chance) despite factors that temper that gap. Schell has recorded grass matches in his profile while Luz's profile lists only clay and hard, which suggests a potential surface advantage for Schell in a grass qualifier setting. Both players have small sample sizes and mixed recent form, so our confidence is limited, but adjusting for grass familiarity and the qualifier context we estimate Schell's true win probability at ~22%, which is slightly higher than the market-implied ~21.4% (4.67 -> 0.214). That gap produces a small positive expected value, but the edge is marginal and the outcome remains high variance given limited data and the heavy favorite status of Luz.

Key factors

• • Surface: Schell has grass experience listed; Luz's profile shows only clay and hard
• • Market pricing heavily favors Luz (decimal 1.181) creating a potential edge on a grass surface
• • Small sample sizes and mixed recent form for both players increase uncertainty and variance