Nikola Bartunkova vs Iva Jovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market appears to overprice Iva Jovic; given near-identical records and no injury or surface edge, Nikola Bartunkova at 2.45 offers ~10% positive EV under a conservative 45% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Parallel career records and recent form suggest match is closer than the odds indicate
- • Home moneyline at 2.45 implies ~40.8% but we estimate ~45% true chance
Pros
- + Significant price gap in favor of a presumably even matchup
- + Conservative probability estimate still yields positive expected value
Cons
- - Limited datapoints and no head-to-head/injury info increase uncertainty
- - Both players are in poor recent form, so variance is high
Details
We find value backing Nikola Bartunkova at 2.45. The available research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form with multiple losses on hard courts and clay; there is no clear performance or injury advantage for Iva Jovic in the data provided. The market prices Jovic at 1.55 (implied ~64.5%) and Bartunkova at 2.45 (implied ~40.8%), which appears to overstate Jovic given the parity in records and surfaces. Conservatively estimating Bartunkova's true win probability at 45%, the maths gives EV = 0.45 * 2.45 - 1 = +0.1025 (≈10.3% ROI on a 1-unit stake). By contrast, Jovic would need a true win probability above ~64.5% to be +EV at 1.55, which is unsupported by the provided form and stats. We therefore recommend the home moneyline as a value bet at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Both players have identical overall records (10-21) and similar surface experience, indicating parity
- • Recent results show both in poor form with multiple losses on challenger-level hard and clay events
- • Market favors the away player strongly (1.55) without supporting differentiators in the provided data