Highlights

• • Research shows near-identical profiles and form for both players.
• • At our 55% estimate, the home price 1.27 yields about -30% ROI on a 1-unit stake.

Pros

• + Clear, conservative reading of the provided data avoids overconfidence from thin information.
• + We calculate required fair price and explicit EV so bettors can compare alternative offers.

Cons

• - Dataset is sparse — identical profiles limit ability to detect subtle edges.
• - If there are external facts not in the research (fitness, travel, local conditions), our conclusion could change.

Details

We find no value at the current market prices. Both players present effectively identical profiles in the provided research (10-21 records, same recent results, same surfaces) with no H2H or injury information to justify a large edge. The market prices Bartunkova (home) at 1.27 (implied ~78.7%); given the symmetric evidence we estimate Bartunkova's true win probability at 55%. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.818, so the offered 1.27 is severely overround and yields negative EV (0.55 * 1.27 - 1 = -0.302). The away line (3.85) implies ~26% but we have no basis from the research to push the true probability high enough to consider the underdog a value target. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have near-identical records and recent results in the provided research (10-21, same recent losses).
• • No H2H, injury, or surface advantage information in the research to support >20% edge vs. market.
• • Market heavily favors the home player (1.27) despite the lack of evidence for a large edge.