Highlights

• • Home implied probability (59.0%) > our estimate (57.0%) — negative edge on favorite
• • Available research shows no decisive differentiator to justify siding with the underdog

Pros

• + Market pricing is reasonable and reflects a close match — low likelihood of a missed large edge
• + No reported injuries or clear form advantage that would suddenly move probabilities

Cons

• - Tiny margin between market and model — insufficient to produce positive EV
• - Research is sparse/duplicative, limiting confidence in finding an overlooked value

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 1.694 / Away 2.19) to our estimated win probability. The market-implied probability for the home favorite is ~59.0% (1/1.694). Based on the available research there is no clear form, surface, injury, or H2H edge — the provided profiles are essentially identical and contain no decisive advantage for either player. We estimate Nikola Bartunkova's true win probability at 57.0%, which implies a fair decimal price of ~1.754. At the current home price of 1.694 the expected return is negative (EV < 0). The away price (2.19) would require an implied probability >45.66% to be +EV; given our assessment the away win probability is ~43.0% (complementary) so that also lacks value. Because neither side offers positive expected value versus our probability model, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.694) = 59.0%, which exceeds our estimated 57.0%
• • Research provides nearly identical player profiles and no clear edge (form, injuries, H2H, or surface advantage)
• • Small margin between market and our model — not enough to generate positive EV on either side