Nikola Breckova vs Gabriela Skrabalova

Highlights

• • Breckova's historical win rate implies fair odds ~3.106, not 1.32.
• • Insufficient opponent data prevents positive-value backing of the away player despite market mismatch.

Pros

• + Clear statistical mismatch between Breckova form and market price (indicates market may be mispricing, but lacking opponent data we can't exploit safely).
• + We use conservative, data-driven probability (career win rate) rather than trusting a single market quote.

Cons

• - Only Breckova's profile is available; absence of Skrabalova data creates major uncertainty.
• - If there are unreported factors (injury, ranking, home advantage, recent wins) favoring Breckova, our estimate may be too pessimistic.

Details

We base our analysis on the available player data for Nikola Breckova (career record 10-21, win rate ~32%) and the listed market prices (Home 1.32, Away 3.2). Breckova's historical win rate implies a true single-match win probability near 32.2%, which corresponds to fair decimal odds around 3.106. The market instead prices Breckova as a heavy favorite at 1.32 (implied probability ~75.8%), a large divergence that is unsupported by the provided performance data. There is no data on Gabriela Skrabalova in the research, so we cannot credibly adjust probabilities in her favor beyond noting she is likely stronger than Breckova given the latter's record. Because the current prices imply a much higher probability for Breckova than her form suggests and we lack opponent data to justify the market, there is no positive expected value on either side at the quoted prices. We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Nikola Breckova career win rate 10-21 (~32.2%) from provided profile
• • Market prices strongly favor Breckova (1.32) which conflicts with her recent record
• • No data provided on Gabriela Skrabalova (unknown form/H2H), creating high uncertainty