Nikola Djosic vs Dimitris Azoidis
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value on Nikola Djosic at 2.34; his empirical win rate (~16.7%) implies fair odds near 5.99 decimal, so current prices are strongly against a profitable play.
Highlights
- • Market overestimates Djosic relative to his documented 2-10 record
- • Required odds for value (~5.99) are far above the available 2.34
Pros
- + Decision is data-driven and conservative given limited information
- + Clear quantitative mismatch between market-implied and empirical win probabilities
Cons
- - We only have detailed data for Djosic; lack of opponent data increases uncertainty
- - Small sample size (12 matches) can make the empirical rate noisy
Details
The market implies Nikola Djosic has a ~42.7% chance at 2.34 decimal odds, but our model based on his recorded 2-10 career win-loss (12 matches) gives a baseline win probability of about 16.7%. Using that estimated true probability, the required fair odds for value would be ~5.988 decimal. At the quoted 2.34, the expected return is strongly negative, so there is no value in backing the home player. We also lack any evidence from the provided research that Dimitris Azoidis is injured or disadvantaged, and the recent match log for Djosic shows multiple recent losses on clay, supporting a low true probability of victory.
Key factors
- • Nikola Djosic career record in provided data is 2-10 (12 matches) implying ~16.7% empirical win rate
- • Market-implied probability for Djosic (1/2.34) is ~42.7%, which is substantially higher than his empirical rate
- • Recent results in the research show multiple losses on clay (recent July 2025 matches), indicating poor form
- • No information in the provided research suggests Dimitris Azoidis has form or fitness issues