Highlights

• • Our fair price for the favorite is ~1.389; market is 1.372
• • Small negative EV (about -1.2% on a 1-unit stake) — avoid the line

Pros

• + Market correctly identifies favorite; the favorite likely wins
• + Avoiding marginal negative EV preserves bankroll for clearer value

Cons

• - If our probability underestimates the favorite (true p >72.96%), value would exist and we'd miss it
• - Limited datasets and lack of info on Efstathiou increase model uncertainty

Details

We compared the quoted moneyline (Away 1.372, Home 2.91) to our best-estimate win probability and found no positive expected value. Nikola Djosic's career record (5-16) and very weak recent form make him the underdog here; the market strongly favors Melios Efstathiou at ~1.372 decimal. Our estimated true probability for Efstathiou is 72.0%, which implies a fair decimal price of 1.389. The current away price (1.372) is slightly below that break-even level, producing a small negative EV (-1.2% on a 1-unit stake). Given the limited data (no H2H, no injury information for either player) and Djosic's poor results across surfaces, we prefer to pass rather than take a marginal negative-expectation favorite.

Key factors

• • Nikola Djosic career record 5-16 with poor recent form
• • Market heavily favors Melios Efstathiou at 1.372 (implied ~72.9%)
• • No H2H or injury data available; limited information increases uncertainty