Nikola Mektic / Mate Pavic vs Benjamin Bonzi / Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~73.5% vs our 72% estimate
• • Lack of provided data on Mektic/Pavic increases uncertainty

Pros

• + Bonzi's recent win-loss record (45-24) supports competitive performance
• + Both opponents have activity across relevant surfaces (clay/grass/hard) per supplied profiles

Cons

• - Herbert's 31-31 record indicates inconsistency
• - No research data supplied for Nikola Mektic / Mate Pavic prevents confident projection

Details

We compare the market prices to a conservative, research-driven probability. The book market prices imply a ~73.5% chance for the home side (1/1.361). Research shows Benjamin Bonzi has strong recent singles form (45-24) while Pierre-Hugues Herbert is much more variable (31-31) across surfaces; both have played clay/grass/hard recently. There is no supplied data on Nikola Mektic / Mate Pavic in the research set, so we cannot quantify their doubles strength and must apply a conservative adjustment for uncertainty. After accounting for Bonzi/Herbert's mixed doubles-relevance from the supplied singles records and the missing information on the home pairing, we estimate the true home probability at 72.0%, which is slightly below the market-implied probability. At the current home price (1.361) that yields a small negative expected value (-0.020), so we do not recommend backing the favorite at these odds.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home is ~73.5% (1.361) vs our estimated 72%
• • Research shows Bonzi strong in recent matches (45-24) but Herbert is inconsistent (31-31)
• • No supplied data on Mektic/Pavic doubles form creates meaningful uncertainty