Highlights

• • Galan: documented grass experience; Izquierdo: no grass listed in profiles
• • Current price 1.372 implies ~73% — we estimate ~78%, generating positive EV

Pros

• + Surface advantage for Galan (documented grass matches)
• + Price still offers small but meaningful edge vs our probability estimate

Cons

• - Limited match-level detail and no head-to-head or injury information in the provided research
• - Estimated probability carries uncertainty; edge is modest (EV ~6.9%)

Details

The market prices Daniel Elahi Galan at 1.372 (implied win probability ~72.96%). From the available profiles, Galan has recorded matches on grass while Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo's activity is listed on clay and hard only, indicating a surface-experience edge for Galan on grass. Galan also has recent higher-level match exposure (ATP/Grand Slam level) which suggests a quality advantage. Accounting for the surface mismatch, experience gap, and recent form signals, we estimate Galan's true win probability around 78%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied ~72.96%, producing positive expected value at the current price.

Key factors

• • Galan has recorded matches on grass (surface experience advantage)
• • Izquierdo's recorded matches are on clay and hard only (likely grass inexperience)
• • Market-implied probability (1.372 => ~72.96%) is below our estimated true probability