Highlights

• • Market implies Galan ~72.5% but our model estimates Sanchez ~43%
• • Sanchez recent clay form and higher win rate in provided data create the valuation gap

Pros

• + Significant edge vs market price at current 2.90
• + Concrete recent clay results for Sanchez in the research

Cons

• - Surface for Szczecin not specified in provided data — outcome sensitive to surface
• - Limited direct H2H or injury information in the provided research increases uncertainty

Details

We find value backing Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo at 2.90 because the market heavily favors Daniel Elahi Galan (implied ~72.5%) while our read of the available form and sample stats puts Sanchez substantially closer to a coin-flip plus edge. Sanchez has a stronger recent win rate in the provided career sample (48-28 ≈ 63% vs Galan 40-32 ≈ 56%) and explicit recent wins on clay (Genoa Challenger, 01-Sep-2025) in the research. Galan’s recent items in the research are losses at the US Open (25-Aug-2025 on hard), which can indicate form/fatigue issues transitioning surfaces/tournaments. Given the heavy market favoritism toward Galan at 1.38, a conservative estimated true probability for Sanchez of 43% yields positive expected value versus the quoted 2.90. We acknowledge surface/venue for Szczecin isn’t specified in the provided material — if the event is clay this strengthens our edge, if it is hard the advantage shifts to Galan — so we price in that uncertainty in our probability but still find value at 2.90.

Key factors

• • Sanchez superior recent win-rate in the provided career sample (48-28 vs 40-32)
• • Sanchez recorded recent wins on clay (Genoa Challenger 01-Sep-2025) in research
• • Galan shows recent US Open losses on hard (25-Aug-2025) indicating possible form/fatigue transition
• • Market heavily favors Galan (1.38) implying ~72.5% which we view as overstated given available data
• • Surface for Szczecin not specified — clay would favor Sanchez, hard would favor Galan (adds uncertainty)