Highlights

• • Home implied probability (62.97%) exceeds our estimate (58%), producing negative EV
• • Surface uncertainty (grass) is a key limiting factor for finding value

Pros

• + Home player has a marginally superior career record and more match experience
• + Market clearly identifies a favorite, so any mispricing would be exposed if surface data shifted

Cons

• - Insufficient grass-specific data for both players increases model uncertainty
• - Both players' recent form shows losses, lowering conviction for either side

Details

We estimate Nikolay Vylegzhanin has a modest edge based on a slightly better career win rate (31-26 vs 25-22) and greater recent match volume, but both players show limited or no recorded grass experience and both come in with mixed recent form. Converting the market price, the home line 1.588 implies a 62.97% win probability, while the away line 2.31 implies 43.29%. Our assessed true probability for Vylegzhanin is 58.0% (0.58) given the marginal quality advantage but uncertain surface fit; that yields EV = 0.58 * 1.588 - 1 = -0.079 (negative). Conversely, Bertimon's implied probability (1 - 0.58 = 42.0%) would create EV = 0.42 * 2.31 - 1 = -0.0298 (also negative). The market prices are too short on the favorite and do not offer value on the underdog either, so we do not recommend a side at current odds. We used the home decimal 1.588 as the reference price for the primary EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Both players have little/no recorded grass experience in the provided data, increasing surface uncertainty
• • Vylegzhanin holds a slightly better overall career win rate and more match volume
• • Recent form shows both players losing in recent events, reducing confidence in a strong edge