Highlights

• • Book market implies Zahraj ~71%; our model ~64%
• • No positive EV on either side at current decimal prices

Pros

• + Zahraj: demonstrated grass experience and larger match sample
• + Market clarity: clear favorite allows a straightforward value assessment

Cons

• - Vylegzhanin: no recorded grass experience and recent results are mixed
• - Favourite's odds are compressed — bookmaker margin removes value

Details

We estimate Patrick Zahraj is the stronger on grass — more matches, an established grass history and a better overall record — but the market price (1.402, implied ~71.3%) overstates his true win chances. Adjusting for surface experience, recent form and the bookmaker margin, we place Zahraj's true probability around 64%. At that probability the favourite is overpriced by the book (EV = 0.64 * 1.402 - 1 = -0.103), so there is no positive expected value on either side at the displayed prices. We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Surface: match is on grass — Zahraj has grass experience; Vylegzhanin has no recorded grass matches
• • Form and sample size: Zahraj has played more matches (80 vs 57) and a superior win-loss record
• • Market pricing: bookmaker implies ~71% for Zahraj; our estimate (~64%) implies the favourite is overvalued