Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alejandro Tabilo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Back Nishesh Basavareddy—we estimate a ~63% win probability while the market pays 1.80 (implied 55.6%), giving ~13.4% positive EV at current prices.
Highlights
- • Basavareddy's season record indicates a clear performance edge
- • Current market price (1.80) understates Basavareddy's win chance relative to our estimate
Pros
- + Meaningful edge in season win rate and match volume
- + Hard-court familiarity and recent activity in the Guangzhou event
Cons
- - No direct H2H provided and single-match variance in tennis can be large
- - Small differences in form or on-the-day issues (injury, illness) could negate the edge
Details
We see clear value backing Nishesh Basavareddy at the current home moneyline (1.80). Basavareddy's season-long record (50-29) implies a substantially higher baseline win rate than Alejandro Tabilo (14-25). Both players are comfortable on hard courts, but Tabilo's recent results show multiple straight losses and limited match volume this season, while Basavareddy has far more wins and recent match activity in Guangzhou. Market-implied probabilities: home 1/1.80 = 55.56%, away 1/1.97 = 50.76% (note sum >100% due to market vig). We estimate Basavareddy's true win probability at 63.0% based on comparative win-loss rates and recent form differential. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1/0.63 = 1.587; the available 1.80 therefore offers positive expected value: EV = 0.63*1.80 - 1 = +0.134 (13.4% ROI). We prefer the home side only because EV > 0 at the current quoted price; the away line (1.97) is overpriced vs our estimated Tabilo win probability and does not present value.
Key factors
- • Season win-loss: Basavareddy 50-29 vs Tabilo 14-25 (substantially better baseline win rate)
- • Surface alignment: both favor hard courts but Basavareddy has recent match activity in Guangzhou challenger
- • Recent form: Tabilo has multiple recent losses and lower match volume, increasing upset risk for him