Nishesh Basavareddy vs Giulio Zeppieri
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small value on Nishesh Basavareddy at 1.58: our estimated win probability (66%) exceeds the market-implied 63.3%, yielding ~4.3% ROI.
Highlights
- • Market price close to our estimated true probability — slight positive edge
- • Basavareddy's recent Guangzhou appearance and higher recorded win rate support favoritism
Pros
- + Estimated true probability (66%) > implied probability from 1.58 (63.3%)
- + Familiarity with event/venue and stronger aggregate record in provided data
Cons
- - Edge is small — narrow margin makes result volatile
- - Limited, partially inconsistent dataset (records and match listings) increases uncertainty
Details
We compare the quoted market price (home 1.58, implied win probability ~63.3%) to our assessment of true probability. Basavareddy's career win rate and heavier recent match volume on hard courts (including a recent Guangzhou Challenger appearance) suggest a slight edge over Zeppieri in this event. Zeppieri has acceptable form on hard but fewer matches in the dataset and no clear advantage vs Basavareddy. Given Basavareddy's higher raw win percentage in the provided profiles and apparent comfort at Guangzhou, we estimate his true win probability above the market-implied 63.3%, producing positive expected value at the available 1.58 price.
Key factors
- • Basavareddy's higher career win-rate in provided data (50 wins vs 29 losses) implying ~63%+ baseline
- • Match surface is hard where both have experience, but Basavareddy shows recent play at Guangzhou (home event) which supports marginal edge
- • Market-implied probability for the home price (1.58) is ~63.3%, close to our estimate — small but positive edge