Highlights

• • Nitin's career win rate is ~30% (10-23), which does not support 1.66 pricing.
• • Required odds to make Nitin +EV would be ~3.30; current 1.66 yields EV ≈ -0.497.

Pros

• + Clear, objective negative signal from Nitin's documented win-loss record.
• + Current market deviation is large, so if more reliable opponent data emerges this could present value.

Cons

• - No data available on Stefan Storch to validate an away-side recommendation.
• - High uncertainty about match surface, fitness, and conditions in the provided research.

Details

We estimate Nitin Kumar Sinha's true win probability at roughly 30.3% based on his documented career record (10-23, 33 matches) and recent form information showing multiple recent losses. The market currently prices him at 1.66 (implied probability ~60.2%), which is materially higher than our estimate. To be +EV backing Nitin at our estimated probability (p = 0.303) we would need minimum decimal odds of ~3.300; at the quoted 1.66 the expected return is negative (EV = 0.303 * 1.66 - 1 = -0.497). We also lack any research data for Stefan Storch, so we cannot credibly invert the model to recommend the away side despite the apparent market discrepancy. Given the one-sided dataset, the large disagreement between market and our conservative probability estimate, and high uncertainty about the opponent and match conditions, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Career record shows 10-23 (33 matches) -> low historical win rate (~30.3%)
• • Recent form in provided matches shows multiple losses and no supporting wins
• • No research data provided for opponent Stefan Storch (high uncertainty)
• • Market-priced favourite (home) at 1.66 implies ~60.2% which materially diverges from our estimate
• • Player has appearances on Clay and Hard but no clear surface edge supplied