Noa Krznaric vs Daniela Ciobanu

Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability 55.6%, our estimated 62.0%
• • Positive expected value of ~11.6% on the away moneyline at 1.80

Pros

• + Clear weakness in the home player's recent form and career win rate
• + Current away price (1.80) is sufficiently high relative to our probability estimate to produce positive EV

Cons

• - No direct performance data provided for Daniela Ciobanu, creating uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - Small sample of available data increases variance around the estimated edge

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Home 1.92 -> 52.1%, Away 1.80 -> 55.6%) to our assessment based on the available player data. Noa Krznaric's 10-21 career record (31 matches) and recent run of losses through early September indicate she is in poor form and unlikely to be the stronger player here. The market is already favoring the away player, and given Krznaric's form we assess the away player has a materially higher win probability than the market-implied 55.6%. Using a conservative true-win estimate for the away player of 62.0% versus the offered decimal 1.80 produces positive expected value (EV = 0.62*1.80 - 1 = +0.116, or +11.6%). We used only the provided career and recent-form information for Krznaric to tilt probability toward the away player; the lack of direct data on Daniela Ciobanu increases uncertainty but does not erase the clear edge at 1.80.

Key factors

• • Krznaric's weak overall record (10-21) and recent losing form
• • Market already favors the away player (implied 55.6%), but our read suggests a higher true win chance
• • Lack of data on Daniela Ciobanu increases variance and model uncertainty