Noah Eisenberg vs Felipe Pinzon Moreno
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Noah Eisenberg at 6.10 because the market implies only ~16% chance while a conservative true probability estimate (~30%) yields +0.83 EV per unit staked.
Highlights
- • Bookmaker implies Pinzon wins ~90% — likely overstated given tiny pro sample
- • Eisenberg's broader match history supports a materially higher true win probability than 16%
Pros
- + Large discrepancy between implied and our estimated probability creates substantial theoretical EV
- + Eisenberg has more recent and numerous pro matches to evaluate form and resilience
Cons
- - Pinzon's limited public record introduces acute uncertainty — unknown improvements or conditions could justify short price
- - Eisenberg's recent results include losses, so our probability estimate is conservative but still uncertain
Details
We believe the market has overstated Felipe Pinzon Moreno's win probability. The bookmaker prices Pinzon at 1.11 (implied ~90.1%) while Noah Eisenberg is available at 6.10 (implied ~16.4%). Eisenberg has a larger professional sample (31 matches, 10-21 record ≈32% career win rate) and recent match activity through September 2025, whereas Pinzon has only two recorded pro matches (1-1) from January 2025 — a very small sample that makes tight short-odds pricing unreliable. Eisenberg's historical win rate and greater match experience suggest a substantially higher true chance than the implied 16.4%. Conservatively estimating Eisenberg's true win probability at 30%, the 6.10 price yields positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 6.10 - 1 = 0.83). The primary risk is uncertainty around Pinzon due to extremely limited data and recent form gaps, but that uncertainty favors Eisenberg being priced too long rather than too short. Therefore we identify value on the home moneyline at the quoted 6.10.
Key factors
- • Eisenberg has a larger professional sample (31 matches) and a 10-21 record (~32% career win rate)
- • Pinzon has only two recorded pro matches (1-1) — sample size too small to justify ~90% market price
- • Both players have hard-court experience, but Eisenberg's recent activity through Sep 2025 gives a clearer baseline
- • Market-implied probabilities: Home 1/6.1 ≈ 16.4%, Away 1/1.11 ≈ 90.1% — we view the away figure as overstated