Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~82.8% for Porras at 1.208
• • Our estimated probability: 88% → positive expected value

Pros

• + Significant experience and match-win advantage for Porras
• + Cherubino has a 1-5 record with recent losses on clay, increasing upset risk for the home player

Cons

• - Any single-match upset is possible in tennis; favorites still lose sometimes
• - Cherubino's small sample size makes exact forecasting noisy

Details

We view Julio Cesar Porras as a clear favorite on clay given a large experience and win-record gap versus Noah Lopez Cherubino (106 matches, 62-44 vs 6 matches, 1-5). The market price of 1.208 implies a win probability of ~82.8%; after adjusting for surface familiarity, match experience, and Cherubino's very small sample and recent losses on clay, we estimate Porras' true win probability at 88%. At that probability the current price (1.208) offers positive expected value: 0.88*1.208 - 1 = +0.0623 (≈6.23% ROI). Key considerations: heavy experience differential, Cherubino's poor 1-5 record and recent losses on clay, and lack of any information indicating injury or special conditions for Porras. Given those factors, the away side (Porras) represents value at the quoted market price.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Porras 106 matches vs Cherubino 6 matches
• • Career win-rate and match volume strongly favor Porras
• • Surface (outdoor clay) does not materially disadvantage Porras; Cherubino has limited clay success