Highlights

• • Market-normalized home probability ≈ 47.19%; away ≈ 52.81%
• • Both sides show negative EV at listed prices (home slightly less negative)

Pros

• + Conservative, market-based estimation minimizes false positives when data is absent
• + Clear identification of bookmaker overround and normalized probabilities

Cons

• - No independent player-specific information used (could miss a true edge)
• - If reliable new info appears, the current conclusion may change

Details

We have no independent match data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) so we take a conservative, market-normalized approach. The book prices imply raw probabilities of 50.76% (Noah Boutleux at 1.97) and 56.82% (Philippe Renard at 1.76). Removing the bookmaker overround (≈7.58%) and normalizing yields an estimated true probability for the home player of ~47.19% and for the away player of ~52.81%. Using these conservative fair probabilities against current decimal prices produces negative expected value on both sides (home EV ≈ -0.070 at 1.97; away EV ≈ -0.071 at 1.76). Because neither side offers a positive EV at current market prices, we do not recommend placing a bet. If additional reliable information (injury, surface advantage, strong recent form, or H2H edge) becomes available that materially shifts our estimated probabilities, we would re-evaluate.

Key factors

• • No independent match data available (form, surface, injuries, H2H)
• • Book prices show a ~7.58% overround; normalization gives home ~47.19% / away ~52.81%
• • Normalized fair probabilities produce negative EV on both sides at current prices