Noah Eisenberg vs Aman Sharma

Highlights

• • Market implies home win 15.38%; our estimate 18% yields value
• • Positive EV at current price: EV = 0.17 (17% ROI)

Pros

• + Large payout (6.50) relative to our conservative win probability
• + Market overround and heavy favoritism toward away increases relative value for the underdog

Cons

• - Very limited and poor recent form for Eisenberg reduces confidence
• - No information provided on Aman Sharma, surface, or match conditions — high uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (home 6.50 -> 15.38%) to our estimated true chance for Noah Eisenberg. Eisenberg's available career record is 10-21 (≈32% career win rate) but his very recent form is weak with multiple straight losses noted in Challenger-level events, so we reduce the raw career win rate to account for form and probable quality gap versus an unspecified opponent who is being priced as a heavy favorite. Given the market overweights the away player (away implied ≈90.9%) and the home price of 6.50 offers a large payout, we estimate Eisenberg's true win probability at 18%. That implies fair odds of ~5.556; at the offered 6.50 there is positive expected value: EV = 0.18*6.50 - 1 = 0.17 (17% ROI). We acknowledge high uncertainty because we have no direct data on Aman Sharma, venue/surface specifics, or injuries; therefore our estimate is conservative but still shows value at current odds.

Key factors

• • Noah Eisenberg career record 10-21 (limited sample) but clearly below 50%
• • Recent form shows multiple recent losses at Challenger events, prompting downward adjustment
• • Market heavily favors away player (away 1.10); home 6.50 implies 15.38% which is below our conservative 18% estimate