Noah Eisenberg vs Mainguy. Clement
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see no positive expected-value bet at the current prices—market pricing for the favorite is consistent with Eisenberg's weak form and our conservative estimate, leaving no value on either side.
Highlights
- • Market implies Mainguy win probability ≈ 86.96% (1.15); our estimate is 86%, giving slightly negative EV.
- • Eisenberg's 10-21 record and recent hard-court losses argue against the 5.00 home price being underpriced.
Pros
- + Market price for the favorite is tight vs our conservative model, reducing the chance of overlooked value.
- + Available data on Eisenberg clearly indicates weak form, supporting the market favorite.
Cons
- - We lack any independent details on Mainguy (form, ranking, injuries), which increases uncertainty around our probability estimate.
- - The small difference between our estimated probability and the market means small estimation errors could flip EV sign.
Details
We compare the market prices (Away 1.15, Home 5.00) to our estimate of true win probabilities. Noah Eisenberg's available profile shows a poor overall record (10-21) with recent losses on hard courts, which supports the market view that he is the clear underdog. However, we lack any independent performance, ranking, or injury information for Mainguy, so the market's ~86.96% implied probability for the away player is not definitively supported above that level by the available data. Using a conservative estimated true probability for Mainguy of 86% produces a slightly negative expected value at the quoted 1.15 price (EV ≈ -0.011 per unit). The home price (5.00, implied 20% win chance) would require a true probability ≥20% to be profitable; given Eisenberg's 10-21 record and recent hard-court losses, we estimate his true chance substantially lower (~14%), so the 5.00 price also offers no value. With limited information on Mainguy and a near-market fair probability estimate, we do not find a positive EV opportunity at the current odds and therefore recommend taking no side.
Key factors
- • Noah Eisenberg recent record 10-21, weak recent form on hard courts
- • Market heavily favors the away player (implied ~86.96% at 1.15)
- • No independent data provided on Mainguy (ranking, form, injuries) increasing uncertainty
- • Small gap between our probability estimate and market makes edge negligible or negative