Highlights

• • Market implies Anna ~65% but research suggests a much closer contest
• • Estimated true probability for Noelia (48%) produces ~13.3% EV at current odds

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge between our probability estimate and market-implied price
• + Both players' profiles in the research lack differentiating negatives for Noelia

Cons

• - Research is sparse: no H2H, ranking, or injury details to confirm the edge
• - If the market has information not in the provided sources (e.g., recent practice, fitness, seeding), that could remove the perceived value

Details

We find value backing the home player Noelia Bouzo Zanotti at 2.36. The provided profiles show both players with nearly identical career records and very similar recent form (both entries indicating recent losses), which suggests the match is much closer to 50/50 than the market's pricing. Current market odds imply Anna Petkovic is a ~65.0% favorite (1/1.538) while Noelia is priced at ~42.4% (1/2.36). Given the symmetric career data and lack of differentiating factors in the research (surface history is broad for both, no injury or H2H data provided), we estimate Noelia's true win probability at 48.0%, meaning the market underprices her and offers positive EV. Using the quoted price 2.36: EV = 0.48 * 2.36 - 1 = 0.133 (13.3% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds for this probability are 2.083, which is below the available 2.36, confirming value.

Key factors

• • Provided career records for both players are nearly identical, implying a much closer matchup than market odds reflect
• • Recent form entries in the research show losses for both players (no clear edge)
• • Market-implied probability strongly favors the away player ( ~65% ), creating value opportunity on the home side at 2.36