Noelia Bouzo Zanotti vs Arianna Zucchini
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home underdog (Noelia Bouzo Zanotti) at 2.74 because the market overstates the away player's edge; our estimate places Bouzo Zanotti at ~48% chance to win.
Highlights
- • Profiles indicate very similar records (10-21) and recent results for both players
- • Current home price (2.74) offers a meaningful margin above our fair estimate (~2.083)
Pros
- + Home odds are well above our calculated fair odds, producing positive EV
- + No clear form or surface advantage for the away player in the available data
Cons
- - Limited differentiating data and small-sample noise at this level increase uncertainty
- - Quarterfinal stage and tournament-specific factors not detailed could change true probabilities
Details
We see both players with essentially identical career records and recent form on similar surfaces from the provided profiles, so there is no clear performance edge for the away player despite the market making her a heavy favorite. The market-implied probability for the away player (~71%) looks overstated given the symmetric evidence; treating this as a near coin-flip matchup gives the home player materially more win probability than the market credits. At the listed home moneyline (2.74) we calculate positive expected value because our estimated true win probability for Noelia Bouzo Zanotti (0.48) implies fair odds of ~2.083, well below the offered 2.74, so the home side is a value bet at current prices.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical records and recent form in the provided profiles
- • Surface history includes hard/court play for both, so no strong surface advantage
- • Market strongly favors the away player despite lack of differentiating evidence, creating price inefficiency