Highlights

• • Bookmaker-implied probability (87.7%) far exceeds what available data supports
• • Both players have nearly identical profiles and recent results in the supplied research

Pros

• + Home favourite status could reflect unshown ranking/home-court factors
• + Short-priced favourite reduces variance for a stake if one accepts the bookmaker's view

Cons

• - Provided data shows no clear superiority for Basiletti versus Cadar to justify 1.14
• - Backing at 1.14 yields a negative expected return based on our probability estimate

Details

We assess that the listed market price (Noemi Basiletti 1.14) implies an 87.7% win probability, which is not supported by the available player data. Both players show identical career spans and records (10-21) and similar recent match logs on clay and hard, with no clear injury or form advantage for Basiletti in the provided research. Given the parity in performance data and lack of corroborating evidence for an 88%+ true chance, we estimate a materially lower true probability for the home player. At our estimated true probability the expected ROI at the current 1.14 price is strongly negative, so we do not recommend backing Basiletti at the available market price.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results in research
• • No injury or clear form advantage for the home player documented in the provided sources
• • Market heavily favors the home player (1.14) despite lack of supporting performance differential