Noemi Maines vs Camilla Gennaro
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: both players look effectively even and current odds are below our estimated fair price (2.00) for a 50% chance, producing negative EV.
Highlights
- • Players are matched on record and recent form in available data
- • Implied odds (1.86–1.83) are below fair coin-flip level (2.00) after bookmaker margin
Pros
- + Market symmetry reduces risk of being caught by unknown favoritism
- + If price drifts toward or above 2.00, value will appear
Cons
- - Current prices embed a significant bookmaker margin, producing negative EV
- - No available on-court or health information to justify taking one side over the other
Details
We find no value for either side. Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on hard and clay with no clear edge in surface preference, injuries, or form reported. The market prices are effectively a coin flip after accounting for an ~8.5% bookmaker margin: implied probabilities are ~53.7% (Noemi Maines at 1.862) and ~54.8% (Camilla Gennaro at 1.826). Our best estimate of the true win probability for either player is ~50% given symmetric profiles and no h2h or other differentiators; at that probability the break-even odds are 2.000, substantially above current offers. Using the home price (1.862) for an example EV calculation: EV = 0.50 * 1.862 - 1 = -0.069 (negative), so betting would be expected to lose value. Therefore we recommend no bet unless prices move to at least the min_required_decimal_odds shown below.
Key factors
- • Both players have identical overall records (10-21) and recent results in provided data
- • No clear surface, form, injury, or head-to-head edge is available to separate them
- • Market contains a sizable vig (~8.5%), making current prices worse than fair coin-flip value