Highlights

• • Home implied probability 70.9% vs our estimate 68% → negative EV
• • Away would need ~3.125 decimal to be fair given our estimate; current 2.75 is insufficient

Pros

• + Conservative, data-light approach avoids overconfidence
• + Clear EV calculations show both sides are negative at current prices

Cons

• - Lack of surface/form/injury/H2H data increases uncertainty around the estimate
• - A small estimation difference (2.9%) could reverse value if additional data favored the favorite

Details

We have no external match data, so we adopt conservative assumptions and estimate Norbert Gombos as the stronger player with a true win probability of 68%. The market prices (Home 1.41 => implied 70.9%) overstate the favourite by roughly 2.9 percentage points vs our estimate, so there is no value on the home side. EV at the home price: 0.68 * 1.41 - 1 = -0.041 (negative). The away price (2.75 => implied 36.4%) would require a true chance >36.4% to be valuable; our implied away probability is ~32% (1 - 0.68), giving EV = 0.32 * 2.75 - 1 = -0.12 (also negative). Given the missing surface/form/injury data and the closeness of market-implied and our estimated probabilities, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external form/surface/injury data — conservative estimate only
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.41) = 70.9% > our estimate (68%)
• • Away implied probability (2.75) = 36.4% > our estimated away chance (~32%)