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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina State Wolfpack play on 2025-10-11 19:30 in the NCAA (American Football). Compare American Football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: -22.6%. No recommended side at current prices. Moneyline — Home: 1.04 (96.2%), Away: 8.6 (11.6%).
No clear edge at current prices. We recommend passing or waiting for line movement.
Home: 1.04, Away: 8.6. Odds may update frequently.
No bet recommended right now.
We conservatively estimate North Carolina State's chance to win at about 9% given the extreme market skew toward Notre Dame and absent any specific injury, venue, or form data to suggest a meaningful upset edge. The available moneyline of 8.6 implies an 11.63% chance; at our 9% probability the underdog price does not offer positive expected value (EV = 0.09 * 8.6 - 1 = -0.226). The favorite's price (1.04) implies ~96.15% and would only be +EV if we believed Notre Dame's true win probability exceeded that level; with no additional supporting information we cannot justify an assumed probability above the market's implied figure. Given limited research data and the tight pricing, there is no clear value at current odds, so we recommend no bet.
Summary: No value found at current prices; the underdog would need odds roughly 11.111+ to be +EV given our conservative 9% win probability for NC State.