Highlights

• • Book price for Djokovic (3.95) implies only ~25% chance
• • We assess Djokovic’s true chance at ~30%, enough to create positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds
• + Djokovic’s extensive Grand Slam and hard-court experience

Cons

• - Alcaraz’s current undefeated run on hard courts suggests strong form
• - Limited head-to-head or injury context in the provided research increases outcome uncertainty

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our estimate of true win chances. The book gives Alcaraz 1.289 (implied ~77.6%) and Djokovic 3.95 (implied ~25.3%). Research shows Alcaraz is in excellent recent form on hard courts (11-0) but from a small sample, while Djokovic has a much larger season sample and deep Grand Slam experience (37-10 across many hard-court matches). We believe the market is over-weighting Alcaraz’s recent undefeated run and under-pricing Djokovic’s experience and resilience in high-stakes matches on hard courts. Conservatively estimating Djokovic’s true win probability at 30.0% (higher than the market-implied 25.3%) yields positive expected value at the current Djokovic price. Calculation: EV = 0.30 * 3.95 - 1 = +0.185 (18.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Given uncertainty (limited direct-data on the matchup in the provided research and momentum for Alcaraz), we remain cautious but see measurable value on Djokovic at 3.95.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Djokovic (25.3%) is below our estimated true chance (30%)
• • Alcaraz’s 11-0 hard-court run is strong but a small sample and may be overvalued by the market
• • Djokovic’s larger seasonal sample and Grand Slam experience increase his likelihood in a high-pressure SF