Highlights

• • Current away odds 3.18 imply ~31.5% chance; we estimate ~40%
• • Fair price (1/0.40) = 2.50; market offers substantially higher odds

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widespread odds
• + Conservative probability assignment despite limited distinguishing data

Cons

• - Both players have poor recent records and similar profiles, increasing matchup uncertainty
• - Limited detail on injuries, exact surface, or head-to-head makes the projection riskier

Details

We find value on Ekaterine Gorgodze as the away underdog. The market prices Gorgodze at 3.18 (implied probability ~31.5%), but the available research shows both players have nearly identical recent records (10-22) and recent form that does not strongly support a large gap in quality. Given the lack of differentiating evidence (same surfaces played, similar recent results), we conservatively estimate Gorgodze's true win probability at 40%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 2.50, well below the market price of 3.18, producing positive expected value. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.40 * 3.18 - 1 = 0.272 (27.2% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The market appears to over-favor the home player without clear supporting data, creating a discrepancy we can exploit. We note limited data and uncertainty about form/surface advantages, so our estimate is intentionally conservative.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~31.5% for the away player vs our estimated 40%
• • Both players show near-identical records (10-22) and recent results—no clear dominance
• • Limited and ambiguous form/surface evidence increases uncertainty but supports conservative probability