Highlights

• • Our win probability for home: 54.0%
• • Required decimal odds for positive EV: ≥1.852; market is 1.81

Pros

• + Slight estimated edge to the home pairing under conservative assumptions
• + Clear threshold to wait for (1.852) simplifies decision-making

Cons

• - Insufficient match-specific data (form, surface, H2H, injuries)
• - Current market price does not offer positive expected value

Details

We estimate a slight edge to the home pairing but not enough to overcome the market price. With no external data on form, surface, head-to-head or injuries, we apply conservative assumptions and assign the home team a win probability of 54.0%. The current home decimal price (1.81) implies a probability of about 55.2%, which is higher than our estimate and therefore offers negative expected value. To be profitable with our estimated probability we would need a price of at least 1.852 or better on the home side; current prices fall short. Given the information vacuum and the intrinsic volatility of doubles matches at this level, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — must be conservative
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.81) is ~55.2%, above our 54% estimate
• • Doubles results are higher variance — small edges may be erased by variance