O. Johansson/A. Shepp vs L. Formella/Haoyuan Huang

Highlights

• • Estimated home win probability 97% vs market implied 95.2%
• • Calculated EV ≈ +1.85% at the 1.05 price

Pros

• + Market price aligns with available form evidence and offers a slight mathematical edge
• + Clear negative signals for the away side in the provided research (Huang's results)

Cons

• - Data is limited and not doubles-specific; uncertainty around partner-level strength
• - Edge is small (low ROI) and sensitive to small changes in true probability

Details

We view the market price (home 1.05, implied 95.24%) as reasonable and slightly understates the home side's advantage. The available research shows Haoyuan Huang has very limited recent success on hard courts (career span with a 2-6 record in the cited period and poor recent results), which lowers the away pairing's win prospects. There is no positive evidence in the provided data that the away duo is markedly stronger, and the heavy market skew toward the home team is consistent with the limited data. Using a conservative estimated true probability for the home team of 97%, the home line at 1.05 offers a small positive edge: EV = 0.97 * 1.05 - 1 = 0.0185 (approx +1.85% ROI). We used the quoted current moneyline (1.05) for this calculation and account for uncertainty due to incomplete doubles-specific data, which is reflected in a modest estimated margin versus the market.

Key factors

• • Haoyuan Huang's poor recent hard-court results (weak win-loss in provided period)
• • Market strongly favors the home side (implied ~95%) consistent with limited away evidence
• • Lack of doubles-specific data increases uncertainty on the exact edge