Highlights

• • Required win probability to be +EV at 1.86 is ~53.8%
• • Our conservative estimated probability for either team is 50%, producing EV = -0.07

Pros

• + Market is balanced; no obvious favorite advantage to exploit
• + Avoids taking negative-expected-value bets given limited information

Cons

• - If we are missing specific edge information (injury, surface advantage, recent form), we may be underestimating one side
• - Doubles volatility means outcomes can swing; lack of data increases uncertainty

Details

We find no value on either side at the quoted 1.86 because, with no external data available, our conservative estimated win probability for either pair is 50.0%. The break-even probability for 1.86 decimal odds is 53.763% (1/1.86), so the market pricing implies a higher win chance than our estimate. EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.50 * 1.86 - 1 = -0.07, therefore we recommend not betting. If new information (injury, team form, surface edge, or a reliable H2H) pushes our probability above ~53.8%, this conclusion would change.

Key factors

• • No external match data or form/injury info available — we use a conservative 50% base rate
• • Both sides are quoted equally at 1.86, implying the market favours each at ~53.76% to break even
• • Doubles matches can be volatile; without clear edges (surface, partnership form, injuries) we avoid taking odds under the required threshold