Highlights

• • Home implied probability 62.11% vs our estimate 63.0%
• • Small positive ROI of roughly 1.4% at current odds

Pros

• + Current market price offers a slight overlay vs our conservative estimate
• + Simple, transparent math with a clear break-even threshold

Cons

• - Very limited pre-match information increases model uncertainty
• - The edge is small; variance and bookmaker margin still significant

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.61, implied 62.11%) to a conservative, information-limited true probability estimate of 63%. With no external injury, surface, or form data available, we take a cautious edge in favor of the home pair but keep the margin small. The threshold break-even probability for the current home odds is 1/1.61 = 62.11%; our estimated true probability (63.0%) exceeds that threshold, producing a small positive edge. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.63 * 1.61 - 1 = 0.0143 (≈ +1.43% ROI). Because the advantage is marginal and based on conservative assumptions, this is a low-to-medium confidence value bet rather than a strong overlay.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (62.11%) is slightly below our conservative true estimate (63.0%)
• • No external injury/form/H2H data available, so estimate is deliberately cautious
• • Small positive edge: required probability to break even is 62.11%, our estimate is 63.0%